NATIONAL AG NEWS SPONSORED BY THE AMERICAN FARM BUREAU FEDERATION
National Ag News for January 07, 2026
Farmer Sentiment Heads Lower
Farmer sentiment weakened slightly in December as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index dropped three points to a reading of 136. Weakness in the barometer was attributable to a modest decline in producers’ long-term outlook, as the Future Expectations Index fell to 140, four points lower than the previous month. The Current Conditions Index was unchanged from November at 128. Angst about the prospects for U.S. soybean exports amid increasing competition from Brazil contributed to a slightly weaker outlook for the future among crop producers. Producers’ expectations for their farms’ financial performance changed little compared to November, as the Financial Performance Index rose just two points to 94. The Farm Capital Investment Index also increased two points to 58 in December. Even with the slight rise, 60 percent of producers said it was still a bad time to make large investments in their farms.
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USDA Announces a New Chief Economist
Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins congratulated Dr. Seth Meyer for his years of service as the USDA’s Chief Economist, and announced Dr. Justin Benavidez (ben-ah-VEE-dez) as the new chief economist. Benavidez previously served as the Chief Economist for the Majority Staff of the House Committee on Agriculture. He provided economic analysis on farm bill policy, commodity markets, and agricultural legislation. As the new USDA Chief Economist, Benavidez will lead the Department’s economic analysis and forecasting efforts, ensuring USDA’s policies and programs continue to be informed by sound, data-driven economic research that supports America’s farmers, ranchers, and rural communities. Before his work on Capitol Hill, he worked as an agricultural economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, focusing on farm and ranch management, production economics, and policy analysis. He holds bachelor’s, master’s, and doctoral degrees in agricultural economics from Texas A&M University.
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Proposed WOTUS Rule Brings Certainty to Farmers
Farmers need rules that clearly define federal jurisdiction of the Waters of the United States, or WOTUS. The American Farm Bureau submitted comments to the Environmental Protection Agency and the Army Corps of Engineers. AFBF detailed the impact of WOTUS on farmers and elements that must be included in the new proposed rule to ensure it can withstand future legal challenges. “Farmers and ranchers support the creation of a legally durable rule that injects clarity into the regulatory process and does not leave landowners guessing what parts of their property are subject to regulation,” wrote John Newton, vice president of public policy and economic analysis. Farm Bureau’s recommendations for the rule included further defining “relatively permanent” to narrow the regulatory scope. The group also wants clarification of when wetlands should fall under WOTUS, continued exclusion of prior converted cropland, and exclusion of ditches from WOTUS jurisdiction.
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Thirteen Percent of U.S. Households Were Food Insecure in 2024
The USDA’s Economic Research Service said 13.7 percent of U.S. households, or 18.3 million, were food insecure in 2024. Food-insecure households, or those with low or very-low food security, had difficulty at some time during the year providing enough food for all their members because of a lack of resources. The 2024 prevalence of food insecurity was similar to the 13.5 percent of households in 2023 and the 12.8 percent in 2022. In 2024, 5.4 percent of U.S. households had very low food security, statistically similar to the 5.1 percent in both 2023 and 2022. In this more severe range of food insecurity, the food intake of some household members was reduced, and normal eating patterns were disrupted at times due to limited resources. Children were food insecure at times during 2024 in 9.1 percent of U.S. households with children, a total of 3.3 million households.
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House Ag Committee Member Dies at 65
Doug LaMalfa, a 13-year veteran of the U.S. House and a member of the Agriculture Committee, died suddenly at 65 years of age. Axios (AX-ee-ohs) said LaMalfa, a fourth-generation rice farmer, represented California’s first congressional district since 2013 and had previously served in the state assembly and Senate. While sitting on the House Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Transportation and Infrastructure Committees, he also served as chair of the Western Caucus. LaMalfa’s seat will remain vacant until a special election is held to fill it, further reducing House Republicans’ already narrow margin, which now stands at 218-213. “Congress is devastated to learn about the passing of a dear friend and colleague, Doug LaMalfa,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson. “Doug was a lifelong resident of Northern California and deeply loved its people.” Johnson also called him a fierce fighter for his state’s vast natural resources and beauty.
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December Cotton Crop Forecast Slightly Higher in December
USDA’s December Crop Production report forecasts 2025-2026 U.S. cotton production at nearly 14.3 million bales, 153,000 bales, or 1.1 percent above last month’s forecast. However, that’s 140,000 bales below the 2024-2025 crop. Harvested area in 2025-2026 is estimated at 7.4 million acres, which is lower than last season’s 7.8 million acres. The USDA data also showed global cotton projections for 2025-2026 (August-July) indicate that global ending stocks are forecast to rise 1.4 million bales, or two percent, from the previous year to 76 million bales. The increase is a result of global production remaining above mill use for the second consecutive year. China remains the largest holder of global stocks, accounting for 46 percent of the global total in 2025-2026. World cotton production is expected to increase slightly from the previous year to 119.8 million bales, with China and Brazil the major contributors to the higher production.
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National Ag News Audio:
(Berns Bureau, Washington/by Matt Kaye) Ethanol Use Tops 11% For First Time Ever
Suggested Lead: Ethanol use topped 11 percent of the nation’s gasoline for the first time ever in October, based on the latest Energy Department Data.
The ethanol “blend rate” came in at 11.06 percent, according to the Energy Information Administration, which was just enough for the ethanol industry to declare a big win.
Renewable Fuels Association Chief Economist Scott Richman says the “blend wall” promoted by the oil industry was always a myth…tape
Cut #1 :12 OC…”ten percent.”
“We’ve seen in recent years that ethanol has reached 10.3, 10.4 percent of the gasoline pool. And that’s proven that we can go beyond ten percent.”
The 12-month average blend rate also hit a record of 10-and-a-half percent in October, with expanding availability the apparent driving factor and demand for flex fuels like E85.
Also helpful is the administration’s timely summertime fuel waivers, but that’s not enough…tape
Cut #2 :17 OC…”be included.”
“What needs to be done is for a permanent legislative fix is allowing E15 to be sold year-round in conventional gasoline areas. And we’re hopeful that in the upcoming budget legislation that has to happen, that this language will be included.”
Which RFA says would also open a badly-needed new market for the nation’s farmers, who are struggling with low crop prices.
And it says continued E15 expansion depends, in large part, on the EPA finalizing robust RFS volumes for 2026-2027 and a full reallocation of small refinery exemptions for 2023 and later…tape
Cut #3 :15 OC…”other refiners.”
“In order to maintain sales of E15 and to keep expanding sales, it’s critical that small refinery exemptions not be granted en masse, and that if some are granted, the volumes are reallocated to other refiners.”
RFA says keeping an average 11 percent blend rate for a full year would yield 15 billion gallons of domestic ethanol use.
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